"Will COVID-19 Be a Blessing in Disguise for the Belt and Road?", 2 May 2020

… the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is having a traumatic drag on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)…

Wholesale community lockdowns, factory closures and manufacturing capabilities repurposing, and travel bans on Chinese migrant workers have in effect fractured vital BRI value chains. Similarly problematic are the disruptions in international trade that inhibit the inflows of construction equipment and materials needed to keep BRI infrastructure projects going…

… The process of reviving the BRI in a post-COVID-19 world can be facilitated and expedited through a two-step sequenced approach.

The first step is to focus on the nonphysical aspects of the BRI such as the Health Silk Road (HSR) and the Digital Silk Road (DSR). Despite a late start in 2016, the HSR is gaining currency with the outbreak of COVID-19, which lays bare the urgency and public-good nature of cross-border health cooperation.

Likewise, the DSR is set to boom during the pandemic, not least for two reasons. On the one hand, many countries have doubled down on various China-inspired digital solutions to combat COVID-19…

On the other hand, COVID-19 is transforming the nature of economy, shifting the balance between electronic and retail commerce in the former’s favor. With the COVID-19 outbreak and social distancing measures continually pushing economic activities and consumption patterns online, China’s DSR will rise in prominence.

… In the second step, China and BRI stakeholder countries will surely go ahead with the physical infrastructure dimension of the BRI. Thus, the hiatus afforded by COVID-19 provides an opportunity for China to contemplate ways to bring about an improved BRI 2.0…

For China, it is essential to multilateralize the BRI, for example, with respect to project financing. So far, the majority of BRI projects have been financed via loans from Chinese policy banks and state-owned commercial banks. There is scope for China to crowd in private capital and financial contributions from international financial institutions like the World Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Asian Development Bank, and the BRICS New Development Bank. China should also make conscious efforts to enhance the procedural, contractual, and informational transparency of the BRI…

In the meantime, China and BRI stakeholder countries should also join forces to protect and empower local communities. Promoting localized job creation and avoiding involuntary resettlement will go a long way in enhancing the public acceptance of BRI projects. Over time, China and host countries should transform transport corridors into growth-enhancing economic corridors that incorporate not only transport infrastructure but also well-connected urban centers and industrial clusters. This way, the BRI can have long-lasting beneficial impact on the countries that participate in it…

[Also referred to Apple and Google]