Projected emissions from Belt & Road investments set to fall behind Paris Agreement targets, report finds

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16 September 2019

Projected emissions from Belt & Road investments set to fall behind Paris Agreement targets, report finds

Author: Lili Pike, China Dialogue

“Belt and Road countries will make or break the Paris Agreement”, 10 September 2019

Developing countries are forecast to emit more carbon dioxide than developed ones by mid-century. Chinese investment is projected to speed up that process in key countries linked to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)… according to a new report.

The study, authored by researchers at Tsinghua University, Vivid Economics, and ClimateWorks Foundation, provides the first model of how carbon emissions will grow for BRI countries, and incorporates the effect of Chinese investment.

By 2050, the annual emissions of the BRI countries studied will far exceed the target levels for complying with the Paris climate agreement to keep global warming below 2C, they find…

For the greater group of 126 countries signed onto the BRI, emissions are projected to grow from 28% in 2015 to 66% in 2050. If they follow the most carbon-intensive growth paths in history, these countries could bring about 2.7C of warming even if the rest of the world meets the 2C target…

… Though the study does not attribute a certain percentage of emissions growth to those investments, it does imply they will play a role in the countries’ emissions increases…

The nature of BRI investments means they will also have an outsize effect on emissions, according to the report. Roads, power plants and other major power and transportation infrastructure projects make up the bulk of them, and these projects are carbon-intensive by nature…

For power sector investments, the report explicitly states that Chinese investments – dominated by coal power – are not aligned with a 2C path, but rather are set to follow a “business as usual” path…

If a 2C path is to be realised, the report identifies a green investment gap totalling nearly US$12 trillion across Belt and Road countries by 2030.

The authors argue that systematic green finance policies will be essential due to the unprecedented emissions reductions required… The authors argue that China should “extend [its] green requirements to its investment in the Belt and Road Initiative​”…

Yan Wang, a Greenpeace campaigner… said… “Solutions include a clear-cut ‘no’ to overseas coal plants (especially those with high environmental, social concerns and low financial viability), alternatively switching to renewables and cultivating the market.”…

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Author: 中外对话

“一帶一路投資能否助力《巴黎協定》目標?”, 2019年9月10日

預計到本世紀中葉,發展中國家的二氧化碳排放量將超過發達國家。一份新報告指出,隨著「一帶一路」這個全球基礎設施與投資計劃的不斷推進,中國投資可能會加速“一帶一路”沿線重點國家的排放增速。

這份研究由清華大學、生動經濟學顧問公司(Vivid Economics)和氣候工作基金會聯合撰寫的報告首次為“一帶一路”國家碳排放增長路徑提供了一個模型,並將中國投資納入考量範圍。

研究人員發現,到2050年,報告中涉及的「一帶一路」國家的年排放量將遠超《巴黎協定》規定的目標溫控水平…

而所有126個簽署「一帶一路」倡議的國家的排放在全球總排放中的佔比預計將從2015年的28%增長到2050年的66%。如果這些國家繼續沿著傳統的碳密集型發展路徑走下去的話,那麼即便全球其他地區堅持2攝氏度溫控發展目標,全球平均溫度仍然會上升2.7攝氏度…

雖然沒有說明具體程度,但報告的確暗示“一帶一路”投資將在相關國家的排放增長中發揮作用…

報告稱,“一帶一路”投資的性質就意味著它們會對排放產生巨大的影響。道路、電廠、以及其他重要電力和交通基礎設施領域的投資在“一帶一路”投資中佔有相當大的比重,而這些項目本身就屬於碳密集型產業…

而從電力投資角度來看,報告明確指出,中國的投資以煤電為主,不僅不符合2攝氏度的全球溫控目標,反而是在延續固有的發展道路…
相對於2攝氏度發展路徑,電力部門的規劃投資項目可以導致化石燃料發電產能過剩,清潔能源發電能力不足

報告作者認為,由於減排的總量前所未有,所以必須出台系統性的綠色金融政策… 報告作者認為,中國應將“國內投資遵循的綠色規定也延伸到'一帶一路'倡議的投資項目中去” 。

綠色和平組織負責「一帶一路」倡議相關問題工作的活動專員王衍表示… 「解決方案有很多,比如徹底叫停海外煤電廠(尤其是那些在環境和社會方面引起高度關切、且財務可行性低的煤電廠)投資,逐步轉向並培育可再生能源市場。」…

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Author: 中外对话

“一带一路投资能否助力《巴黎协定》目标?”, 2019年9月10日

预计到本世纪中叶,发展中国家的二氧化碳排放量将超过发达国家。一份新报告指出,随着「一带一路」这个全球基础设施与投资计划的不断推进,中国投资可能会加速“一带一路”沿线重点国家的排放增速。

这份研究由清华大学、生动经济学顾问公司(Vivid Economics)和气候工作基金会联合撰写的报告首次为“一带一路”国家碳排放增长路径提供了一个模型,并将中国投资纳入考量范围。

研究人员发现,到2050年,报告中涉及的「一带一路」国家的年排放量将远超《巴黎协定》规定的目标温控水平…

而所有126个签署「一带一路」倡议的国家的排放在全球总排放中的占比预计将从2015年的28%增长到2050年的66%。如果这些国家继续沿着传统的碳密集型发展路径走下去的话,那么即便全球其他地区坚持2摄氏度温控发展目标,全球平均温度仍然会上升2.7摄氏度…

虽然没有说明具体程度,但报告的确暗示“一带一路”投资将在相关国家的排放增长中发挥作用…

报告称,“一带一路”投资的性质就意味着它们会对排放产生巨大的影响。道路、电厂、以及其他重要电力和交通基础设施领域的投资在“一带一路”投资中占有相当大的比重,而这些项目本身就属于碳密集型产业…

而从电力投资角度来看,报告明确指出,中国的投资以煤电为主,不仅不符合2摄氏度的全球温控目标,反而是在延续固有的发展道路…

相对于2摄氏度发展路径,电力部门的规划投资项目可以导致化石燃料发电产能过剩,清洁能源发电能力不足

报告作者认为,由于减排的总量前所未有,所以必须出台系统性的绿色金融政策… 报告作者认为,中国应将“国内投资遵循的绿色规定也延伸到‘一带一路’倡议的投资项目中去”。

绿色和平组织负责「一带一路」倡议相关问题工作的活动专员王衍表示… 「解决方案有很多,比如彻底叫停海外煤电厂(尤其是那些在环境和社会方面引起高度关切、且财务可行性低的煤电厂)投资,逐步转向并培育可再生能源市场。」…

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