‘Is Betting On Oil and Gas the Right Choice for Africa? 31 March 2022

Late last year, a coalition of environmental and human rights organisations filed an urgent interim interdict in the Makhanda High Court to prevent Shell from conducting seismic surveys to explore for oil and gas off South Africa's Wild Coast. The case received considerable media attention in South Africa and sparked debate not only on the environmental impact of seismic blasting, but on broader issues around energy security, climate commitments, and what constitutes a 'just transition'. These issues are not unique to South Africa and remain largely unresolved across much of the continent as governments try to balance development needs against climate commitments, and energy companies seek to maximise their profits in an increasingly turbulent sector.

…Moreover, without strong institutions in place, the potential for investments to be mismanaged, and the risk of profits simply accruing to a political and military elite, is high. The Chad-Cameroon Petroleum Development and Pipeline Project serve as a prime example, becoming marred in controversy due to allegations of corruption and the diversion of revenues intended for 'poverty reduction' towards arms purchases by the Deby regime. Southern African states are also looking to exploit oil and gas opportunities, with several major recent developments in the sector. For example, in Mozambique, offshore gas reserves are estimated to range from 50 to 100 trillion cubic feet (tcf). Major disruptions due to conflict in the Cabo Delgado region have, however, cast some doubts on the future of the project. In South Africa, shale beds beneath the Karoo region have been estimated to exceed 400 tcf. And in Namibia, an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil were found off the coast in 2012, spurring further exploration in the Orange River basin.

…A committed transition away from new oil and gas exploration opens the space for African states to allocate resources to a 'leapfrogging' development trajectory that can truncate the historical relationship between income growth and environmental degradation. Renewable energy projects typically do not rely on megaprojects like dam building, coal-fired power stations, LNG pipelines, and centralised energy transmission grids. They come onstream faster, enabling small businesses to thrive and local markets to flourish, and are increasingly cost-effective (financially and in terms of limited negative externalities). Because much of the continent's infrastructure has not yet been developed, African governments would seem well-advised to pursue a predominantly renewables-orientated future. This may help them to leapfrog their more industrialised counterparts.