"Four years on: Assessing China’s overseas coal power ban", Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), November 2025

Four years on: Assessing China’s overseas coal power ban

Key findings

• China’s overseas coal pipeline continues to contract, with the total pipeline (pre-permitted, permitted, and under construction) falling to 31.4 GW as of July 2025: down from 49.5 GW in 2024.
• Cancellations accelerated after last year’s slowdown, with 16.4 GW of new capacity officially cancelled in 2025, bringing total cancelled capacity since the 2021 pledge to 59.3 GW, equivalent to 6.1 billion tonnes of avoided lifetime carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions.
• Construction continues in key regions, with 12.1 GW still under construction across 14 projects: mostly captive coal, which refers to off-grid coal plants that serve mineral-processing and industrial parks, in Indonesia, India, Laos, and Zimbabwe.
• The pre-permitted and permitted pools remain large, at 14.6 GW and 4.7 GW, respectively. Many projects have shown no movement since 2023, indicating stalled or speculative developments, yet still pose future risks if revived.
• New ‘mothballed’ plants emerged as a risk category, with 1.3 GW of recently built capacity now idle but not retired, notably Bangladesh’s Banshkhali (S Alam) power station. These units could be reactivated without new approvals.
• China-backed overseas captive coal projects have added an estimated 1.5 billion tonnes of lifetime CO₂ representing nearly half of all emissions from projects currently in operation.
• China has yet to designate a lead government agency to coordinate and implement the commitment, leaving gaps in oversight and accountability across overseas energy investments.
• Despite progress, China’s overseas coal ban has yet to reach full implementation. The remaining pipeline represents around 3.4 billion tonnes of potential lifetime CO₂ emissions if completed. Early intervention at the pre-permit and permitted stages remains critical to avoid lock-in.