专家说,新冠疫情凸显了“一带一路”设计上的不足

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作者: Council on Foreign Relations

“What the COVID-19 Pandemic May Mean for China's Belt and Road Initiative”, 17 March 2020

… it [the coronavirus pandemic] has already highlighted some of the frailties of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)… China has constructed its loosely-governed, $1 trillion infrastructure initiative to ensure that Beijing reaps many of the benefits, but this structure of governance has also created significant foreign dependencies upon China. Most BRI infrastructure contracts are given to Chinese companies, most projects rely overwhelmingly on Chinese labor and supplies, and BRI depends on the availability of massive amounts of cheap credit from Chinese banks…

… China’s COVID-19 response all but halted the Belt and Road Initiative in its tracks. Work ceased along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Cambodia’s Sihanoukville Special Economic Zone came to standstill, and projects across Indonesia, Myanmar, and Malaysia became stuck in holding patterns. A freeze on the flow of Chinese labor is a significant factor in these disruptions, with thousands of Chinese workers unable to return to their country of work… The longer that Chinese workers are unable to return to projects overseas, the longer the projects will languish incomplete, and some may be abandoned altogether (a phenomenon not unheard of, even within BRI’s short track record).

The COVID-19 crisis has also hampered China’s manufacturing supply chains, and BRI projects are predominantly reliant on Chinese, rather than local, materials and supplies. The pandemic has compromised the global supply chains that keep BRI projects moving forward, limiting the goods flowing  out of China… The global shipping industry was slowed to the point that more tonnage of container ships was idled around the world in February than during the worst points of the 2008 financial crisis…

Moreover, China is facing down the COVID-19 public health challenge with its economy slowing to the lowest rates in three decades…

It is far too soon to know, however, the extent to which many BRI countries themselves will be affected by the pandemic…  If BRI were based on a different model of governance, however—centered on locally sourcing workers, suppliers, and manufacturers, engaging international infrastructure-building experts, and focusing on building local capacity—these shocks would almost certainly be differently felt…

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18 March 2020

专家说,新冠疫情凸显了“一带一路”设计上的不足

作者: Council on Foreign Relations

[此翻译由企业责任资源中心提供]

“新冠疫情会对中国‘一带一路’倡议产生何种影响”,2020年3月17日

…新冠疫情突显“一带一路”倡议的弱点…中国设计了管理松散的投资额高达一万亿美元的基础设施项目,以确保北京获取大量的收益,但这种管理结构使受援国对中国高度依赖。大部分“一带一路”的基建项目合同都给了中国公司,很多项目极度依赖中国的劳工和物资供应,这使得“一带一路”倡议建立在了中国银行提供的巨额廉价信贷资源之上。

…中国应对新冠疫情使得“一带一路”倡议几乎陷入停滞。中巴经济走廊、柬埔寨西哈努克港经济特区以及在印尼、缅甸和马来西亚的项目都处于停工状态。暂停中国劳工的流动是造成这些项目中断的一个重要原因,成千上万的中国工人无法返回项目实施国复工…中国工人复工的时间拖得越久,这些项目延误得就越严重,一些项目有可能被放弃(在“一带一路”为期不长的记录中,尚未出现这种情况)。

新冠危机还打击了中国制造业的供应链,“一带一路”项目主要依靠中国而非当地的物资供应。疫情削弱了推动“一带一路”项目前进的全球供应链,限制了中国商品的出口……全球航运业萎靡不振,全球集装箱运输船在2月份的空置吨数大于2008年金融危机时空置吨数的最高值…

此外,随着经济发展减缓到30年来的最低水平,中国正面临着新冠疫情带来的公共卫生挑战…

现在还无法确定新冠疫情对加入“一带一路”倡议的众多国家的影响如何…如果该倡议基于一种不同的管理模式,如以当地工人、供应商和制造商为中心,让国际基础设施项目专家参与其中,以及重视地方能力建设,这些冲击带来的影响必然会有所不同…

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作者: Council on Foreign Relations

[此翻譯由企業責任資源中心提供]

“新冠疫情會對中國'一帶一路'倡議產生何種影響”,2020年3月17日

…新冠疫情突顯“一帶一路”倡議的弱點…中國設計了管理鬆散的投資額高達一萬億美元的基礎設施項目,以確保北京獲取大量的收益,但這種管理結構使受援國對中國高度依賴。大部分“一帶一路”的基建項目合同都給了中國公司,很多項目極度依賴中國的勞工和物資供應,這使得“一帶一路”倡議建立在了中國銀行提供的巨額廉價信貸資源之上。

…中國應對新冠疫情使得“一帶一路”倡議幾乎陷入停滯。中巴經濟走廊、柬埔寨西哈努克港經濟特區以及在印尼、緬甸和馬來西亞的項目都處於停工狀態。暫停中國勞工的流動是造成這些項目中斷的一個重要原因,成千上萬的中國工人無法返回項目實施國復工…中國工人復工的時間拖得越久,這些項目延誤得就越嚴重,一些項目有可能被放棄(在“一帶一路”為期不長的記錄中,尚未出現這種情況)。

新冠危機還打擊了中國製造業的供應鏈,“一帶一路”項目主要依靠中國而非當地的物資供應。疫情削弱了推動“一帶一路”項目前進的全球供應鏈,限制了中國商品的出口……全球航運業萎靡不振,全球集裝箱運輸船在2月份的空置噸數大於2008年金融危機時空置噸數的最高值…

此外,隨著經濟發展減緩到30年來的最低水平,中國正面臨著新冠疫情帶來的公共衛生挑戰…

現在還無法確定新冠疫情對加入“一帶一路”倡議的眾多國家的影響如何…如果該倡議基於一種不同的管理模式,如以當地工人、供應商和製造商為中心,讓國際基礎設施項目專家參與其中,以及重視地方能力建設,這些衝擊帶來的影響必然會有所不同…

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