New spatial analysis by Earth Insights reveals compounding risk and deepening uncertainty around the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP). The project faces escalating systemic risk driven by four main factors: threats to high-value ecosystems, long-term oil market uncertainties, high carbon emissions from a 1,443-km heated pipeline, and ongoing infrastructure, governance, and legal challenges. The central pipeline cuts through one of Africa’s most extensive freshwater systems, connecting the basins of lakes Albert and Victoria before ending in Tanzania’s coastal mangroves. According to the report, the pipeline's trajectory could impact 158 wetlands in Uganda alone, 11 rivers, 44 protected areas, and 7 key biodiversity areas

According to the report, maps and spatial analysis also indicate that 100% of Lake Albert could be overlapped by oil development: 60% by Uganda production blocks and 40% by shelved DRC oil blocks. The report claims that a major oil spill on Lake Albert would threaten the livelihoods of some 100,000 households and over 20,000 fishermen in the DRC alone. Lake Albert’s fishing industry makes up a third of Uganda’s production. Two satellite images compare land-use conditions at the Victoria Nile river crossing between July 2023 and June 2026. The 2026 inset map highlights newly cleared roads and feeder paths along the riverbank, showing recent infrastructure development associated with the pipeline crossing.

The environmental risks are projected to escalate significantly. Research shows that while initial production generates three barrels of wastewater per barrel of oil, this ratio surges to nine barrels as oilfields age, effectively tripling the waste management burden over the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) life cycle. Furthermore, independent reviews warn that a wastewater spill would spread across Lake Albert faster than crude oil. The Kingfisher project alone is expected to generate 200 metric tons of waste oil sludge annually, with projections suggesting up to half could be dumped directly into the lake. These risks are already manifesting; local Ugandan fisherfolk report recent sightings of oil slicks and dead fish floating on the water's surface. Another independent review of the Tilenga impact assessment likewise recognized the pollution risks from waste water leaks into soil and groundwater.

TotalEnergies denied the allegations, pointing to its publicly available publications on human rights and environmental efforts. Read the company's full response below.

CNOOC, Uganda National Oil Company, EACOP and Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation did not respond