"Why is China’s air pollution shifting west?" Dialogue Earth, 17 July 2025

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China’s efforts at managing air pollution have hitherto focused on the eastern parts of the country. [...].

But [...] pollution rose in provinces to the south and west of the country. PM2.5 levels in Guangxi, Yunnan and Xinjiang were substantially higher than a year earlier, at 32%, 14%, and 8% respectively.

[...] largely the result of heavy industry, such as steelmaking and coal processing, moving to the south and west of the country where energy is more abundant.

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Where is the pollution coming from?

[...] three main factors have driven the recent upturn in air pollution: increased output from energy-intensive industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and coal-to-chemical processing; firework displays to celebrate national festivals; and burning of crop stubble in springtime.

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[...] In central and western China, steel production mostly uses the coal-intensive long-process method. In the east, pig iron output dropped further than crude steel, reflecting a shift towards energy efficiency and carbon reduction.

[...] Construction is speeding up for both modern and conventional coal-to-chemical projects, driven by falling coal prices and pressure for energy security. Growth of the conventional industry is mainly concentrated in western and central China.

Guangxi in focus

Air pollution in Guangxi significantly worsened at the end of January with the start of the Spring Festival period. This was due to intensive firework use coinciding with stagnant weather conditions. [...] Weak enforcement of regional firework bans and joint control measures contributed to the problem.

On 29 January, the first day of the Lunar New Year, three cities in Guangxi recorded heavy pollution [...].

Industrial relocation and the risk of air pollution

[...] In 2020, China began ramping up efforts to develop the western regions. Electricity for large-scale industrial use is cheaper in western China than in the east due to more favourable conditions for generating power from renewable resources.

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However, challenges remain. [...] Electricity demand in western China is rising faster than the national average, placing stress on the capacity to absorb and coordinate clean energy.

The original aim of moving industries westwards was to match clean energy with industrial needs, reduce carbon intensity, and achieve “cutting pollution and reducing carbon” synergies. This poses challenges in managing areas not designated as critical for pollution prevention.

Green transition as the strategic crux

The central government has set a target to lower the average annual PM2.5 level to less than 25 µg/m³ by 2035 [...]. With air pollution rising in non-priority areas, 2026-2030 countermeasures must address the spatial distribution of energy-intensive industries and ensure coordinated planning for industrial development and pollution control.

[...] this means promoting low-carbon technology, industrial electrification and accelerating the clean energy transition. Eastern regions would be supported to restructure green-industrial chains in central and western China, exporting capital, technology and governance capability.