"Indonesia braces for possible ‘Godzilla El Niño’ as fire season escalates early" 15 April 2026

JAKARTA — Indonesia is entering the 2026 fire season with early signs of escalation, as burned area surges even before the dry season peak and forecasts raise the possibility of a so-called “Godzilla” El Niño later this year.

Burned area reached 32,637 hectares (80,650 acres) by February [...] even before the dry season has fully set in.

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A boy rides a bicycle through a thick smog haze from peatland and forest fires in Lebung Itam village, Tulung Selapan subdistrict, Ogan Komering Ilir Regency, South Sumatra. This area often burns during dry season since the activities of logging concessions T. Bumi Mekar Hijau (BMH), PT. Image courtesy of © Abriansyah Liberto / Greenpeace.

Burning season

Fire monitoring by the independent watchdog Pantau Gambut detected 23,546 hotspots in peatland areas since January 2026.

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In 2015, Godzilla El Niño brought prolonged and more intense dry season to Indonesia, resulting in toxic haze from the burning of plantations in the country traveling as far as neighboring Malaysia and Singapore, causing more than half a million respiratory infections.

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Corporate responsibility

Pantau Gambut also found that many hotspots are located within concession areas, including 6,192 hotspots in oil palm concessions and 1,334 in timber concessions.

The group says this suggests that legal permits alone do not guarantee fire-safe land management and highlights gaps in oversight and enforcement.

Pantau Gambut campaigner Putra Saptian said the government should ensure concession holders take responsibility for restoring burned areas, so the cost of environmental damage does not fall on the state.

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Earlier this year, residents in Siak also reported persistent haze linked to nearby fires. One resident, Sugiono, said the haze lasted throughout the day — unlike typical morning fog — raising concerns about its impact on public health.

“When it gets hazy like this, it’s a sign that ARI [acute respiratory infection] will spread again among the community,” he told local media [...]

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Food insecurity

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Erma Yulihastin, a researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency, said drought could affect key rice-producing regions along Java’s northern coast.

Past El Niño events have had significant impacts on agriculture [...]

“When El Niño occurs, drought conditions become more extreme, leading to clean water crises, crop failures and food insecurity,” said Musdalifah, a food campaigner at WALHI.

She added that Indonesia’s vulnerability is compounded by long-term land use changes, including the conversion of agricultural land into plantations and large-scale infrastructure projects.

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